Britain’s Mild Winter

Met Office scientists have staked their reputation on a mild winter. They came under fire earlier this year after predicting a “barbecue summer” which turned into a damp squib.

Their long-range winter forecast predicted temperatures and rainfall “likely to be near or above average”. They added: “Winter 2009/10 is likely to be milder than last year.” There was an 85 per cent chance of normal or above-average conditions. But the Met Office hedged its bets by saying: “There is still a 1-in-7 chance of a cold winter.” American forecaster Joe Bastardi of AccuWeather said winter would be cold across Europe. He added: “Though Britain’s temperatures are likely to be near normal there is a risk of very cold weather coming in from eastern Europe.” Earlier this month Jonathan Powell of Positive Weather Solutions forecast a cold winter, with “potentially a big freeze in January and February”.

The Met Office said: “There will be some spells of cold weather, sleet, snow and frost but the temperatures and rainfall will be average or above.” However, despite the recent prediction, most people are aware that the UK Met Office has in recent years become something of a laughing stock. Its much-derided forecast that Britain would enjoy a "barbecue summer" this year was only the latest of a string of predictions that proved wildly off-target. Three years ago it announced that 2007 would be "the warmest year ever", just before global temperatures plunged by 0.7 degrees Celsius, more than the world's entire net warming in the 20th century. Last winter, it forecast, would be "milder and drier than average", just before we enjoyed one of our coldest and snowiest winters for years. And in 2009 it promised us one of the "five warmest years ever", complete with that "barbecue summer", when temperatures have been struggling to reach their average of the past three decades. With its track record, it is little wonder that people are skeptical as to whether these predictions will follow through to reality.